Delphi method


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Delphi method

a method of researching, with the aim of perhaps FORECASTING, future events. This involves marshalling the views, either by interviews or meetings, of a panel of‘experts’ who are thought likely to be well placed to estimate future trends in the field in question. The method is named after the temple of Apollo at Delphi in Ancient Greece, famous for its oracle, whose priestesses were renowned for the highly cryptic character of their prophecies. How far ‘experts’ are always in the best position to provide useful forecasts of events is debatable. Experts, by definition having a particular view of the world, may be good at extrapolating trends or tendencies already well established, but they may be less good at spotting insidious change or the ‘unexpected’, which an outsider may be better placed to do. See also FUTUROLOGY.
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1996) Gazing into the Oracle: The Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health.
Rola metody delfickiej w Narodowym Programie Foresight "Polska 2020" [The role of Delphi method in the Polish National Foresight Program "Poland 2020"].
There are many benefits to using the Delphi method to answer specific research questions.
For this study, the Delphi method was used to produce a reliable consensus of opinion through the use of a panel of knowledgeable experts (Turoff & Linstone, 2002).
The objective of the present research is not to conduct a study aiming the improvement of the Delphi method or to perform a comparative study between the Delphi method and the other methods or techniques of group communication, but rather to try to understand the phenomenon of KM capabilities by identifying the key concepts and the characteristics of each concept in order to reach a consensus from experts.
Writings related to Delphi methods suggest that there is no set sample size of the panel (Schmidt, 1997; Williams and Webb, 1993).
The Delphi method earned its name from an Air Force-sponsored defense research study in the early 1950s, called Project Delphi.
This article presents the results of a study that examined the effects of using the Delphi method for student evaluations of faculty.
AIR executives said they focused more on expert opinion, and used the Delphi Method, a strategy developed by the RAND Corp.
Accordingly, the Delphi method and Nominal Group technique were identified as appropriate methods to obtain professional consensus from key stakeholders involved with physical activity in the state.