Delphi method


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Delphi method

a method of researching, with the aim of perhaps FORECASTING, future events. This involves marshalling the views, either by interviews or meetings, of a panel of‘experts’ who are thought likely to be well placed to estimate future trends in the field in question. The method is named after the temple of Apollo at Delphi in Ancient Greece, famous for its oracle, whose priestesses were renowned for the highly cryptic character of their prophecies. How far ‘experts’ are always in the best position to provide useful forecasts of events is debatable. Experts, by definition having a particular view of the world, may be good at extrapolating trends or tendencies already well established, but they may be less good at spotting insidious change or the ‘unexpected’, which an outsider may be better placed to do. See also FUTUROLOGY.
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The empirical part of the article presents the results obtained using the Delphi method.
The Fuzzy Delphi method was developed during the late 1940s.
Application of the Delphi method for comprehensive identification of sustainability indicators together with a group of experts from the tourism sector
Exploringthe application of the Delphi method as a forecasting tool in Information Systems and Technologies research.
The quality of Delphi method results is affected by the strength and expertise of the SME panel members (Wester & Borders, 2014).
The increased knowledge and perspective from the Delphi method can lead to technical excellence and innovation.
To prioritize areas of CG that are in the greatest need of change through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model and the Delphi method.
A seventeen member international expert panel including psychiatrists, neurologists, anesthesiologists and emergency medicine physicians developed the first consensus based criteria for the diagnosis of NMS using the Delphi method.
The Delphi method employed in this study quantifies this impact and allows comparison of alternative MPA sites based on the resulting metric.
Use of consensus methods, namely brainstorming, nominal group technique and the Delphi Method can be used.