Hydrologic Forecasts

Hydrologic Forecasts


scientific predictions (of varying amounts of time in advance) of the development of a process occurring in a river, lake, or reservoir.

According to the character of the elements of the regimen being forecast, hydrologic forecasts are divided into water forecasts and ice forecasts. Water forecasts predict the volume of seasonal and flood runoff, maximum discharges of water and high-water or flood levels, average water discharges for various calendar periods, and the time of the maximum high-water level. Ice forecasts predict the times of breakup and freezing over of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs and the thickness of ice. Hydrologic forecasts may be short-range—for a period of up to 15 days—and long-range—for a period of 15 days to several months in advance. In terms of their purpose, distinctions are drawn between forecasts for hydroelectric power (inflow of water into the reservoirs of hydroelectric stations), for water transportation (forecasts of the water level on navigable rivers), and for irrigation (fore-casts of river runoff during the growing period). Hydrologic forecasting is one of the principal divisions of applied hydrology.


References in periodicals archive ?
Given that precipitation is a primary forcing in hydrologic models, an increased focus on improving quantitative precipitation forecasts is needed; improving the reliability of short-term to seasonal hydrologic forecasts, through better computational and data resources, and new space- and ground-based observations must also be a priority.
Therefore, Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is the most commonly used variable in hydrologic forecasts in snow-prone areas.
The NOAA NWM automatically integrates meteorological data from operational weather radars and multiple numerical weather prediction systems and produces hydrologic forecasts at a range of time scales.
This study is targeted at providing the scientific underpinning for the predictability of hydrologic extremes over GEWEX RHP basins and serves as a prototype for seasonal hydrologic forecasts within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS).
A typical solution is to bias correct the meteorological forecasts from the CGCMs and then drive advanced hydrologic models with refined initial land surface hydrologic conditions to produce seasonal hydrologic forecasts and extreme predictions (Wood et al.
Therefore, this article focuses on a comparison between NMME-based and ESP-based forecasts of hydrologic extremes and explores to what extent the meteorological forecasts from state-of-the-art climate forecast models can improve the hydrologic forecasts relative to the traditional approach that only relies on the information from hydrologic initial conditions.
Nonetheless, the satellite data provide useful information for validating the hydrologic forecasts, especially if their corresponding time scales and uncertainties are well understood.
2012) for short--to medium-range hydrologic forecasts and Kang et al.
Such a wide range of applications requires forcing inputs and hydrologic forecasts at multiple space-time scales and for multiple forecast horizons: from minutes for flash flood predictions in fast-responding basins to years for water supply forecasts over larger areas (see examples in McEnery et al.
Diagnostic verification of hydrologic forecasts needs to be routinely performed by scientists and operational forecasters to improve forecast quality (Welles et al.
Several studies have demonstrated that utilizing the reforecast dataset from the frozen version of a NWP model significantly improves the skill of temperature and precipitation forecasts (in particular for heavy precipitation events), as well as hydrologic forecasts (Werner et al.

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