subjective probability

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subjective probability

[səb′jek·tiv ‚präb·ə′bil·əd·ē]
(statistics)
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Bayesian markets reward truth-telling the same way as prediction markets (betting markets) reward people for reporting their true subjective probabilities about observable events.
As is well known, subjective probabilities are applied to an event or outcome that is unique or occurs once.
Our simple elicitation method of subjective probabilities delivers a high response rate (92 percent of the eligible sample).
Rather, the assessment is one of subjective probabilities, assessed in light of rational bases for inference, an entirely different concept.
1) Yet the new work has tended to remain either too wedded or overly hostile to subjective probabilities for evaluating evidence (2) and to Bayes' theorem for combining evidence, (3) and so caused the debates to become "unproductive and sterile.
29) Indeed, my view is compatible with the suggestion that one subjectively ought to maximize expected value: Expected value is assigned by subjective probabilities, which are expressed as credence values (see note 25) multiplied by the value of resulting states.
To cope with the problem of joint inference on preferences and expectations, I elicit subjective probabilities directly from individuals.
And since, as was seen above, probability must be defined subjectively if the world is causally-deterministic, this means that the relative frequency method is only capable of producing subjective probabilities.
The F/L bias could instead originate from systematic biases in bettors' subjective probabilities (si).
0], as the weighted average of postgame values, with weights equal to their subjective probabilities of game outcomes, [prob.
Referring to mistakes such as the assessment about Himalayan glaciers, the review noted that such recommendations that involved subjective probabilities should be based on the principle of " high agreement, much evidence.

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