subjective probability

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subjective probability

[səb′jek·tiv ‚präb·ə′bil·əd·ē]
(statistics)
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Many take our discourse about subjective chance to be non-factive; they take subjective probabilities to be nothing more than expressions of creedal states.
I believe we need to face up to the challenge posed by radical uncertainty--a state of affairs in which we cannot enumerate all the possible states of the world and hence cannot attach subjective probabilities to them.
Proposed explanations for this reluctance have focused on factors such as the statistical nature of some circumstantial evidence and the tendency of factfinders to assign low subjective probabilities to circumstantial evidence.
Harrison Wagner develops an approach to deterrence based on game theory, with incomplete information represented by subjective probabilities, primarily in the context of bipolar nuclear competition.
For a well made die, there is really only one symmetric probability, but there is an infinite number of experimental and subjective probabilities.
Bayesian markets reward truth-telling the same way as prediction markets (betting markets) reward people for reporting their true subjective probabilities about observable events.
As is well known, subjective probabilities are applied to an event or outcome that is unique or occurs once.
Our simple elicitation method of subjective probabilities delivers a high response rate (92 percent of the eligible sample).
Rather, the assessment is one of subjective probabilities, assessed in light of rational bases for inference, an entirely different concept.
1) Yet the new work has tended to remain either too wedded or overly hostile to subjective probabilities for evaluating evidence (2) and to Bayes' theorem for combining evidence, (3) and so caused the debates to become "unproductive and sterile.
To cope with the problem of joint inference on preferences and expectations, I elicit subjective probabilities directly from individuals.

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