TABLE 7 Manufacturing Indicators: Lags between Key Series Estimation technique: Almon distributed lag Observation period: 1970M1-97M9 Standard Series and Mean
Lag Error of Predecessor Series (Months) Mean Lag Industrial production, durables/ 2.342 Undefined Durables orders, real Durables shipments, real/ 1.654 Undefined Industrial production, durables Series and Adjusted [R.sup.2] Predecessor Series of Equation Industrial production, durables/ 0.401 Durables orders, real Durables shipments, real/ 0.309 Industrial production, durables Lag Specification Series and (Order, Lag Length, Predecessor Series Endpoint Constraint) Industrial production, durables/ 2, 12, None Durables orders, real Durables shipments, real/ 3, 9, None Industrial production, durables