We use a year-over-year percent change (YoY) of the headline PCE deflator
as the measure of the pace of inflation.
In particular, developing better price deflators
for business investment in intangible capital and better estimates of depreciation rates for intangible capital should be high priorities.
Economic Calendar26 JUN AU Job VacanciesUK BoE Governor Carney Speaks in London on Financial StabilityUS Personal Spending MayUS PCE Deflator
9 percent, resulting in an average annual increase in the GDP deflator
Further, this bias tends to be positive when prices of nondurable goods, such as the CPI or consumption deflator
, are mismatched with GDP components composed mostly of durable goods.
We construct an FOMC consensus forecast for the output deflator
by taking the difference between the consensus forecasts for nominal and real output.
As for the effect of different deflators
concerns, Table 4 provides some estimation results about the price effect caused by using a different GDP deflator
These findings provide the basis for our estimation of a vector error-correction model (VECM) to forecast overall core PCE deflator
inflation for 2003.
Equation (1) reveals the relation between the absence of arbitrage opportunities and the existence of the state-price deflator
In light of this, we considered four measures of inflation based on four measures of the aggregate price level: 1) the GDP deflator
, 2) the price deflator
for the nonfarm business sector (NFB), 3) the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and 4) the price deflator
for personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and the personal consumption expenditure deflator
for money supply.
The copy of the report says mild deflation has been continuing, citing figures from the consumer price index, as well as the GDP deflator