exceedance probability

exceedance probability

The probability of a storm occurring during any one year which equals or exceeds the rainfall rate used in the design of the storm-water drainage system.
References in periodicals archive ?
The modelled exceedance probability of the class B notes was originally evaluated at 7.
The key or greatest facilitator of informed business decisions is communicating data uncertainty as a frequency and impact distribution, overlaid with an exceedance probability (EP) curve at the desired confidence level.
Putting all this together, the final form of the ST exceedance probability of second-order nonlinear maximum crest heights is approximated, for large values of the normalized linear crest height z, as
With an annual exceedance probability of 1%, or about a 100-year return period, there are pandemic scenarios that could cause far greater losses.
Analytical results are reported for the case whenever floods follow to a Gumbel or even Generalized Extreme Value distribution, and these results are contrasted along with those associated with previous research that searched for the estimation of exceedance probability associated with exceptionally large floods like the flood of record.
s] term and the results indicated that the difference in the deviance information criterion (24) is negligible, so different covariance structure would not impact much on the model fit and the resulting estimates on the exceedance probability.
Thus, we define different LSFs and random variables here and try to study the efficiency of proposed method in estimating the exceedance probability.
6 requirements) that address the following:development of a methodology for the selection of design annual exceedance probability (aep) rainfall depths, temporal patterns and intensities for a range of aep events; the subsequent hydrological modelling of those events for the catchment base case (existing situation) and selected historic events plus a number of flood mitigation scenarios to determine inflows to a callide valley hydraulic model; estimation of the aeps of the callide dam crest floods (dcf) for the base case and alternate operational scenarios; and callide valley hydraulic model runs to test the flood mitigation benefits of scenarios (including variations to dam operations) selected by the project work group (pwg).
Predicted exceedance can be acquired from exceedance probability that exceed MAAQG standard.
If combined with an actuarial estimation of the likelihood of various threats, this methodology can be used to create an exceedance probability curve for loss estimation and rate-setting.
8 billion -- a loss level that has an exceedance probability (EP) of one percent (100-year return period).
AIR explains that an insurer focused only on the immediate area where the Japan Tohoku earthquake struck would see that the event had an extremely low exceedance probability for that region.