Inflation

inflation, in economics, persistent and relatively large increase in the general price level of goods and services. Its opposite is deflation, a process of generally declining prices. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the Consumer Price Index (CPI) yearly, which measures average price changes in relation to prices in an arbitrarily selected base year. While the CPI is usually considered the most reliable estimate of inflation, some economists have questioned whether it overstates inflationary trends.

Inflation results from an increase in the amount of circulating currency beyond the needs of trade; an oversupply of currency is created, and, in accordance with the law of supply and demand, the value of money decreases. Deflation is brought about by the opposite condition. In the past, inflation was often due to a large influx of bullion, such as took place in Europe after the discovery of America and at the end of the 19th cent. when new supplies of gold were found and exploited in South Africa. In modern times wars are the most common cause of inflation, as government borrowing, the increase in the money supply, and a diminished supply of consumer goods increase demand relative to supply and thereby cause rising prices.

Inflation stimulates business and helps wages to rise, but the increase in wages usually fails to match the increase in prices; hence, real wages diminish. Stockholders make gains—often illusory—from increased business profits, but bondholders lose because their fixed percentage return has less buying power. Borrowers also gain from inflation, since the future value of money is reduced. Deflation, which historically has occurred in the downward movement of the business cycle, lowers prices and increases unemployment through the depression of business. Persistent deflation in Japan, beginning in the early 1990s, has resulted in a drop in consumption, record unemployment, and general economic stagnation. An unusually steep and sudden rise in prices, sometimes called hyperinflation, may result in the eventual breakdown of an entire nation's monetary system. The most notable example is Germany (1923), where prices rose 2,500% in one month.

In the United States, annual price increases of less than about 2% or 3% are not considered indicative of serious inflation. During the early 1970s, however, prices rose by considerably higher percentages, leading President Nixon to implement wage-and-price controls in 1971. Stagflation–the combination of high unemployment and economic stagnation with inflation–became common in the industrialized countries during the 1970s. The costs of the Vietnam War and the social programs of the Johnson administration, plus the oil prices increases in 1974 by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), contributed to U.S. inflation. By the end of the 1970s the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in an attempt to reduce inflation. Following a recession in the early 1980s, there was renewed growth, somewhat lower interest rates, and a decrease in the inflation rate.

During the early 1990s, a downward business turn created an international recession—without significant deflation—that replaced inflation as a major problem; the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to stimulate economic growth. The mid-1990s saw moderate inflation (2.5%–3.1% annually), even with an increase in interest rates. By the late 1990s, U.S. inflation was low (1.9% by 1998), despite record growth; it has tended to be somewhat higher (roughly 2%–3.5%) in subsequent years, due largely to increases in energy costs and, to a lesser degree, to large government deficits since 2001.

Bibliography

See J. Ahmad, Floating Exchange Rates and World Inflation (1984); A. J. Brown, World Inflation Since 1950 (1985); T. S. Sargent, The Conquest of American Inflation (1999).

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inflation

In cosmology, a hypothesized period of exponential expansion of the universe, shortly after the big bang, which may account for some of the universe's observed properties, such as the distribution of energy and matter. Grand unified theories of the forces of nature suggest that inflation could have occurred during the first 10⁻³² second after the universe began, when the strong force was decoupling from the weak and electromagnetic forces. During this time, the universe would have expanded by more than 100 orders of magnitude. Interpreted in the context of general relativity, inflation occurred while the universe existed in a state of nonzero energy density (false vacuum).

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inflation

In economics, increases in the level of prices. Inflation is generally thought of as an inordinate rise in the general level of prices. Four theories are commonly used to explain inflation. The first and oldest, the quantity theory, promoted in the 18th century by David Hume, assumes that prices will rise as the supply of money increases. Milton Friedman refined the quantity theory in the mid-20th century, arguing that the prescription for stable prices is to increase the money supply at a rate equal to that at which the economy is expanding. A second approach is John Maynard Keynes's theory of income determination, which assumes that inflation occurs when the demand for goods and services is greater than the supply. It calls for the government to control inflation by adjusting levels of spending and taxation and by raising or lowering interest rates. A third approach is the cost-push theory. It traces inflation to a phenomenon known as the price-wage spiral, in which workers' demands for wage increases lead employers to increase prices to reflect their higher costs, thereby sowing the seeds of a further round of wage demands. A fourth approach is the structural theory, which emphasizes structural maladjustments in the economy, as when in developing countries imports tend to increase faster than exports, pushing down the international value of the developing country's currency and causing prices to rise internally. See also deflation, price index.

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inflation

1. Economics a progressive increase in the general level of prices brought about by an expansion in demand or the money supply (demand-pull inflation) or by autonomous increases in costs (cost-push inflation)

2. Informal the rate of increase of prices

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Inflation 

an overflow of the circulation channels with excess paper money, which leads to money depreciation and to the redistribution of social product and national income among sectors of the national economy, social classes, and population groups to the advantage of the wealthy classes.

The economic term “inflation” began to be used in the second half of the 19th century to refer to the swelling of paper money circulation, but its use became widespread only in the 20th century. However, the phenomenon of inflation itself is as ancient as the nominal money tokens to which inflation is inseparably linked. In precapitalist formations, inflation manifested itself mainly in monetary form, as coinage by the government (or by counterfeiters) of inferior coins (by weight or quality of the metal) or the introduction into circulation of copper instead of silver coins at the existing nominal value. Such an inflation led to the depreciation of coins, caused a decline of the value of money in terms of real income, and disorganized the exchange process (leading to such results as a decrease or stoppage of the supply of produce by peasants to the cities). These effects induced the authorities to take measures to regulate money circulation either by withdrawal from circulation of surplus copper money or by reduction of the nominal value of the coins. With the advent of paper money, the inflation of monetary units was displaced by paper money inflation. In the 18th and 19th centuries and before World War I, such an inflationary process was observed in various capitalist countries at various times.

As a result of inflation, paper money becomes devalued in comparison to the money commodity, that is, to gold, as well as to the sum of ordinary commodities and foreign exchange, which retains its previous real value or which devalues to a lesser degree.

With the onset of the general crisis of capitalism, inflation has acquired a universal and chronic character. After World War II, the issue of money increased enormously in a number of countries. For example, in France the money volume increased by more than 2 trillion francs from 1945 to 1955. In 1960 the government was compelled to revalue the currency: 100 francs were set equal to 1 “new franc,” which would have a gold content of 0.180000 g of pure gold. Other countries suffered similar or even more acute inflation, including China (during the regime of Chiang Kai-shek), Italy, and Japan. In some countries, inflation acquired enormous dimensions (hyperinflation). For instance, in Greece in 1944 the money volume reached 2.5 quintillion drachmas; this currency, according to official sources, was devalued 50 billion times.

The inflation process of paper money is significantly modified under contemporary capitalism. One of the acute contradictions of contemporary state-monopoly capitalism is the so-called creeping inflation, which manifests itself by continuous price increases in capitalist countries (the rate of exchange of paper money in gold and foreign exchange remains unchanged and does not reflect the devaluation), an increase in the cost of living, and the decline of foreign exchange purchasing power. From 1948 to 1968 the purchasing power of the Japanese yen and the French franc fell by 60 percent, the pound sterling by half, and the Italian lira by almost half. The inflationary processes caused sharp fluctuations of the rates of exchange of currencies of many capitalist countries (the devaluation of the pound sterling in 1967, of the French franc in 1969, and of the US dollar in 1971).

Inflation is used by a government to cover unproductive national expenditures and financial outlays of entrepreneurs in order to stimulate business activity. During inflation, wages usually lag behind the increase in commodity prices, which leads to the decline of real wages, the reduction of the costs of production under capitalism, and the strengthening of exploitation. The characteristic feature of inflation as a method of labor exploitation is that it is used not by different entrepreneurs but by the entire capitalist class through the state’s financial machinery, thus representing a disguised method of exploitation. In addition to the production and clerical workers, small producers of goods also suffer from inflation. The peasants suffer losses when buying industrial products, and the main profit from the price increase of agricultural production goes to the intermediate buyers of this production. Inflation also injures the working masses because of the devaluation of their savings. It intensifies social and class contradictions and at the height of its development leads to a disorganization of the whole process of capitalist production, to the point that monetary reform and (even if only temporarily) currency stabilization become necessary.

Under socialism, the volume of money in circulation is determined by planning in accordance with the requirements of retail commodity turnover, so that the overflow of circulation channels with surplus money is prevented. However, at certain moments a surplus of money in circulation channels may be created as a result of the financial tension brought about by emergency situations (for example, war), nonfulfillment of plans, and errors in planning. In such cases, the monetary mass is brought into conformity with the requirements of the national economy through a monetary reform or through measures of current planning regulation. Unlike capitalist practice, in a socialist system the problem of money stability is worked out in the course of planning the entire national economy as part of the broader problem of the economy’s financial balance, that is, the balance between monetary (in terms of value) and material elements of the development of the socialist economy.