personal probability


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personal probability

[′pərs·ən·əl ‚präb·ə′bil·əd·ē]
(statistics)
A number between 0 and 1 assigned to an event based upon personal views concerning whether the event will occur or not; it is obtained by deciding whether one would accept a bet on the event at odds given by this number. Also known as subjective probability.
References in periodicals archive ?
The questions covered 7 topics: worries about EVD and perceived personal probability of infection, knowledge about transmission routes of Ebola virus, media use to obtain information about EVD, personal reactions to the EVD outbreak, attitudes toward specific measures to prevent the spread of EVD to Europe, willingness to volunteer to fight EVD in West Africa, and attitudes toward vaccination against EVD.
After you've fully named six possible explanations for whatever phenomenon you are seeking to understand, you then apply your personal probability factor (PPF) to each of your six explanations.
However, when I think reflectively about questions of expected utility, personal probability and actual action, I ask myself if, and in what manner, my various actions are consistent or not with my beliefs.
To calculate the probability of the risk, Alinean has developed the following formula: Predicted number of breaches per year = personal probability of security breach occurring X estimated number of incidents per 1,000 users X the multiple of 1,000 users.
It is true for any pair of theories T and T[prime] that if T [satisfies] T[prime] then for any rational personal probability function [P.
De Finetti believed that it was possible to reduce what people thought they were referring to, when they talked about objective probabilities, to personal probability distributions which take into account known or believed causal factors present in the set-up, like a coin's mass distribution, a smoker's physical constitution and age, and so on (de Finetti [1931], discussed in Skyrms [1991]).
They say that when we observe E, we should increase the personal probability we attach to H in proportion to our prior personal probability for E, given H, and in inverse proportion to our prior personal probability for E: that is, H should be favoured to the extent its acceptance would have increased our expectation of E.

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