The questions covered 7 topics: worries about EVD and perceived personal probability
of infection, knowledge about transmission routes of Ebola virus, media use to obtain information about EVD, personal reactions to the EVD outbreak, attitudes toward specific measures to prevent the spread of EVD to Europe, willingness to volunteer to fight EVD in West Africa, and attitudes toward vaccination against EVD.
After you've fully named six possible explanations for whatever phenomenon you are seeking to understand, you then apply your personal probability
factor (PPF) to each of your six explanations.
However, when I think reflectively about questions of expected utility, personal probability
and actual action, I ask myself if, and in what manner, my various actions are consistent or not with my beliefs.
To calculate the probability of the risk, Alinean has developed the following formula: Predicted number of breaches per year = personal probability
of security breach occurring X estimated number of incidents per 1,000 users X the multiple of 1,000 users.
It is true for any pair of theories T and T[prime] that if T [satisfies] T[prime] then for any rational personal probability
De Finetti believed that it was possible to reduce what people thought they were referring to, when they talked about objective probabilities, to personal probability
distributions which take into account known or believed causal factors present in the set-up, like a coin's mass distribution, a smoker's physical constitution and age, and so on (de Finetti , discussed in Skyrms ).
They say that when we observe E, we should increase the personal probability
we attach to H in proportion to our prior personal probability
for E, given H, and in inverse proportion to our prior personal probability
for E: that is, H should be favoured to the extent its acceptance would have increased our expectation of E.