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probabilistic |
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More realistic is Stephen Jay Gould's consciousness of contingency, random variation, and probabilistic reasoning. Nonetheless, they make probabilistic predictions about where a winning position is most likely to be found. The problem with the industry's approach, he said, is that insurers look at vast areas, they make probabilistic estimates of what the damage may be, and when the wind blows stronger than was expected, they end up with much more damage than was expected. |
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