Delphi method


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Delphi method

a method of researching, with the aim of perhaps FORECASTING, future events. This involves marshalling the views, either by interviews or meetings, of a panel of‘experts’ who are thought likely to be well placed to estimate future trends in the field in question. The method is named after the temple of Apollo at Delphi in Ancient Greece, famous for its oracle, whose priestesses were renowned for the highly cryptic character of their prophecies. How far ‘experts’ are always in the best position to provide useful forecasts of events is debatable. Experts, by definition having a particular view of the world, may be good at extrapolating trends or tendencies already well established, but they may be less good at spotting insidious change or the ‘unexpected’, which an outsider may be better placed to do. See also FUTUROLOGY.
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This study used a modified Delphi method to seek consensus among haemophilia experts on key factors required for a successful home therapy programme for patients with inherited bleeding disorders in SA.
The term "expert" is defined by Merriam-Webster (2017) as individuals "having, involving, or displaying special skill or knowledge derived from training or experience." Dalkey (1969), who originated the Delphi method, asserted at least 11 people were required to serve on the expert panel in a Delphi study to establish an acceptable level of external reliability.
Using the Delphi method to develop nursing-sensitive quality indicators for the NICU.
Additionally, the present study revealed that the Jury of Executive Opinion, the Naive method, ARIMA, the Delphi method and Text Mining are the five least important methods for job applicants to know.
On this basis, the current study aimed to build a quantitative medical technology evaluation system through questionnaire survey using the Delphi method and set index weight coefficient to each indicator through analytical hierarchy process within medical institutions.
An experimental study of group opinion: The delphi method. Futures, 1(5), 408-426.
That is why it was not necessary to represent the application of the Delphi method.
Delphi method was devised as one of the structured methods for reaching consensus (Fink et al., 1984) in RAND in the 1950s (Riggs, 1983) and entails a series of questionnaires or sequential rounds with controlled feedback aiming to cause consensus among a group of experts on a specific topic (Hasson et al., 2000; Powell, 2003).
A Delphi method study is an interactive and iterative process that can include as many rounds as necessary to yield a consensus.
We used the Delphi method to verify the model conceptualized by Yufit and colleagues (1969) for classifying specialties as either person-oriented or technique-oriented.
The authors recommend open discussion among the chosen panel of experts but a better model might be the Delphi Method, in which experts are assigned to respond to a set of questions during the intelligence analysis process.
The authors used the mapping method, the Delphi method and the standardised interview method.