A manager with years of experience may tend to lean on judgmental forecasts because of past experience.
Improving Forecasting Accuracy by Combining Statistical and Judgmental Forecasts in Tourism.
Judgmental forecasts are often used when historical data are not available, such as a new and unique capital project.
When evaluating DSGE models on an absolute basis, however, we find that the benchmark estimated mediumscale DSGE model forecasts inflation and GDP growth very poorly, although statistical and judgmental forecasts do equally poorly.
Section V considers robustness analysis and extensions, showing in particular that judgmental forecasts have adjusted faster than the others to capture developments during the Great Recession.
They found that these judgmental forecasts were not, in most cases, more accurate than the naive forecast, and the forecasts suffered from both inefficiency and bias.
In general, they found the judgmental forecasts to be less than optimal.
Armstrong and Collopy (1998) demonstrated how to integrate objective forecasts with
judgmental forecasts to gain more confidence in future forecasts.
Econometric and
judgmental forecasts were obtained from commercial forecasting agencies.
The advantages and limitations of economic models and
judgmental forecasts are reviewed, and a process that incorporates features of both is recommended.
If the linkages among policy, the economy, and prices were well enough understood, reasonably stable over time, and mostly free from noise, they might be captured by a reliable empirical model or perhaps by
judgmental forecasts.
Second, a wide body of literature suggests that
judgmental forecasts are likely to be of dubious accuracy.
