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The observed overall decline in long-run MPK during the period 1955-85, as well as the decline in TFP growth that we show later, is consistent with the textbook growth model in which diminishing returns to capital accumulation eventually set in.
long-run MPK shows a relatively small decrease until the late 1970s, followed by a fairly small increase until the early 1990s; it has been flat since then.
Panel B of figure 3 adjusts our primary long-run MPK measure to control for variation across countries in the relative price of consumption goods to capital goods, as explained earlier in our discussion about equation 2.
These patterns in the median long-run TFP growth rate are broadly consistent with the patterns in long-run MPK.
Note that the United States' long-run TFP growth rate moves broadly with its long-run MPK before 2000, and moves fairly closely with its long-run real interest rate before 1986.
Increases in the capital-to-labor ratio push MPK down (owing to diminishing marginal returns), while increases in TFP--as well as in the capital share of income--push MPK up.
4) and the median long-run MPK from figure 3, panel A (p.
Our measures of the expected return from capital investment and the risk premium are based on the macro-economic estimate of MPK.
Our examination of the determinants of investment demand shows that trends in both long-run MPK and TFP growth track trends in the long-run real interest rate from the 1960s through the mid-1970s, but not again until in recent years.
The relative importance of the forces underlying the long-run MPK trends--namely, changes in the capital share of income, total factor productivity, and the capital-to-labor ratio--varies over time.
18) Further details on the construction of MPK are in the appendix.
19) This finding for long-run MPK and the long-run real interest rate for the United States is consistent with the results in Gomme, Ravikumar, and Rupert (2011).
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