Dr Khawaja said the threat of pandemic
influenza is ever-present.
As Burkle advises, pandemics
begin and end at the local level, and local assessment is critical but too often neglected.
Certain event characteristics are similar to those seen in historical outbreaks; transmissibility is similar to some estimates for the 1918 flu pandemic
, while the ratio of fatalities to cases in certain countries is similar to the 1957 and 1968 flu pandemics
Some of the G20 countries, including Brazil and South Korea, have fought serious disease outbreaks in recent years, and those countries have an obvious reason to want to expand public and private pandemic
insurance programs, the students write.
The 1918 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic
was one of the most devastating epidemic events in recent history; an estimated [approximately equal to]1% of the global population (20-50 million persons) died (7), including >14 million in India alone (2).
The World Health Organisation has officially declared the pandemic
differ significantly from what was observed during the pandemic
In the case of the 1918 pandemic
, three waves occurred in quick succession over a 12-month period with each wave barely separated by an inter-pandemic period.
Clinical trials of the pandemic
H1N1 vaccines in pregnant women are underway.
The National Antiviral Stockpile was also created that currently includes 48.7 million adult doses of oseltamivir, 2 million paediatric doses of oseltamivir and 5 million doses of zanamivir; quantities considered sufficient to treat 17.5% of the Canadian population during a pandemic
of moderate severity and with an anticipated 35% clinical attack rate.
"Considering the long and confusing track record of pandemic
influenza, it is difficult to predict the future course of the present H1N1 pandemic
," they added.
"During the peak of an outbreak of a severe influenza pandemic
in the United States, an estimated 40% of the workforce could be unable to work because of illness, the need to care for ill family members or fear of infection."