subjective probability


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subjective probability

[səb′jek·tiv ‚präb·ə′bil·əd·ē]
(statistics)
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Separate one-way between-subject analyses of variance (ANOVAs) were conducted for rate of delay discounting, rate of probability discounting, and the subjective probability of obtaining delayed rewards (measured by SPQ) across the groups of never smokers, current ecigarette users, and traditional cigarette smokers.
People seem to believe that imposing liability based on circumstantial evidence is less appropriate even when the direct and circumstantial evidence do not differ in terms of the objective or subjective probability of the truth of the material facts, or in terms of their confidence in the probability assessment.
20) Similarly, the nonuniqueness of subjective probability or utility, mentioned by Wagner, can be captured with info-gap theory.
It is always possible to allocate a subjective probability.
He also recognizes that the robustness of this under his generalized non-EU framework depends heavily on the insured's subjective probability of a loss coinciding with the probabilities used to price the insurance in actuarially fair terms.
Where subjective probability assessments are appropriate, the potential for heuristics to affect judgment does not mean we should seek some other assessment method.
Subjective probability theory allows us to speak of the likelihood of a single event.
The need to measure subjective value has been around since the introduction of Expected Utility Theory by Bernoulli (1738/1954), and that of measuring subjective probability since the introduction of Subjective Expected Utility Theory by Savage (1954).
E]very physical probability," Good noted, "can be interpreted as a subjective probability or as a credibility.
This is known as subjective probability because it changes depending on the current state of knowledge of the individual making the assessment.
This reinterpretation led de Finetti to formulate the principle of "reduction to exchangeability" in order to eliminate the "nebulous" "metaphysical" concepts of objective probability and independence (essential in the formulation of the law of large numbers and of the limit central theorem) precisely in favour of the subjective probability and exchangeability.

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