climatological forecast

climatological forecast

[‚klī·məd·əl′äj·ə·kəl ′fȯr‚kast]
(meteorology)
A weather forecast based upon the climate of a region instead of upon the dynamic implications of current weather, with consideration given to such synoptic weather features as cyclones and anticyclones, fronts, and the jet stream.
References in periodicals archive ?
The probability for the climatological forecast is always 0.33 and the verifying probability of the three forecast systems is usually greater than this value.
For a climatological forecast, the probabilities [p.sub.clim] forecasted for each tercile are 1/3 = 33.3%.
The inset table shows various measures of forecast quality: i) linear correlation index (Corr), ii) Kendall ranked correlation (Rank), and the mean absolute SS with respect to iii) a climatological forecast (Clim) and iv) a 10-yr persistence forecast (Pers).
At the beginning of round I, the player using predictions from the forecast systems puts 29% of the money on the winning category, whereas the player using the climatological forecast puts 33%.
Probabilistic forecast verification, (top) The probability of the verifying tercile as predicted by each of the forecast systems, the climatological forecast, and the mix climatology-persistence forecast, (middle) Return ratio for each forecast system when playing against the climatological forecast.
where [CRPS.sub.ref] is the CRPS from the reference forecast (e.g., the climatological forecast used in this study).
And climatological forecasts of nuclear-war-induced temperature changes indicate that, depending on when the war broke out, summer freezes might occur.
Established in 1994, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center works to provide climatological forecasts that relate to the management of climate sectors within the USAPI (Hamnett et al.