ecological modeling

Ecological modeling

The use of computer simulations or mathematical equations to address questions that cannot be answered solely by experiments or observations. Ecological models have two major aims: to provide general insight into how ecological systems or ecological interactions work; and to provide specific predictions about the likely futures of particular populations, communities, or ecosystems.

Models can be used to indicate general possibilities or to forecast the most likely outcomes of particular populations or ecosystems. Models differ in whether they are “basic” or are intended to address management decisions. As ecology has grown in its sophistication, models are increasingly used as decision support tools for policy-makers. Models of virtually every possible type of ecological interaction have been developed (competition, parasitism, disease, mutualism, plant-herbivore interactions, and so forth). The models vary in their level of detail. Some models simply keep track of the density of organisms, treating all organisms of any species as identical (mass action models). At the other extreme, the movement and fate of each individual organism may be tracked in an elaborate computer simulation (individual behavior models). See Population ecology

Simple algebraic models are very useful for indicating general principles and possibilities. In order to be a management tool, the model must be more complicated and detailed to reflect the specific situation under examination. For example, instead of a few equations, ecologists have modeled spotted owl populations and old growth forests in Washington using a detailed computer simulation that keeps track of habitat in real maps at the scale of hectares. In these simulation models, owls are moved as individuals from one hectare to another, and their fate (survival, death, or reproduction) is recorded in the computer's memory. By tracking hundreds or even thousands of owls moving around in this computer world, different forestry practices corresponding to different logging scenarios can be examined. See Systems ecology

A model is a formal way of examining the consequences of a series of assumptions about how nature works. Such models refine thinking and clarify what results are implied by any set of assumptions. As models become more complicated and specific, they can also be used to conduct experiments that are too expensive or impractical in the field.

One danger of ecological modeling is the uncertainty of the models and the shortage of supporting data. Properly used, models allow exploration of a wide range of uncertainty, pointing out the limits of current knowledge and identifying critical information required prior to management decision making. However, it would not be prudent to rely solely on the output of any model. See Ecology

ecological modeling

[‚ek·ə‚läj·ə·kəl ′mäd·əl·iŋ]
(ecology)
The conceptualization and implementation of computer simulations of the behavior of living systems.
References in periodicals archive ?
Stevens extensive experience includes quantitative ecosystem analysis and ecological modeling. He has applied these skills in assessing ecological risks posed by a variety of stressors, including climate change.
Hambright's research includes aquatic life forms and complexities, as well as basic and applied biogeochemical and physical limnology, ecological modeling, climate change impacts, watershed dynamics and various socio-political aspects of freshwaters.
We answer these questions by proposing a framework with (i) a vegetation model that combines procedural and ecological modeling techniques to translate landscape maps to an ecologically sound plant distribution and (ii) a visualization model that translates the generated plant distribution into a 3D representation suitable for interactive visualization over the web.
Wells, and also to the unpredictable and "cataclysmic environmental phenomena of our contemporary natural world--which Scott argues would be more accurately charted through narrative ecological modeling. Cosmos, by contrast, is related to a Romantic notion of the mind as natural microcosm in nineteenth-century lyric poetry, and to the experimental model of microcosm that modern ecologists continue to use to study nature's activities in a balanced, controlled form--a scientific procedure that, Scott contends, is inherited from lyrical poetic practices familiar to readers of Wordsworth and Keats.
In addition, the ECOPATH model will be developed, it said, an ecological modeling software, which assesses the impact of fishing on the ecosystem, the contribution of MPAs in the ecosystem, as well as the current overall contribution of MPAs to the sustainability of fish stocks.
In the final section of the book, Scott provides her only extended case study in turning to the work of Keats, whom she argues utilizes a technique similar to ecological modeling in much of his poetry.
Key words: baleen whales; Chinook salmon; ecological modeling; herring; strategic planning; systems models
Her topics include the computational theory of unstructured cellular automata, unstructured cellular automata for spatial dynamic ecological modeling, the spatial evolution of benthonic macro-invertebrates under flow regulation using hybrid modeling, and individual-based and spatial-based unstructured cellular automata and applications to aquatic ecosystem modeling.
Among the topics are computational approaches in agricultural research, the unique role of halogen substituents in designing crop protection compounds, new targets for fungicides, ecological modeling in pesticide risk assessment, and an enquiry-led approach to generating data for the safety evaluation of new pesticide active ingredients.
Ecological modeling in ecosystem restoration is explored by Sven Erik Jorgensen.
This text for a master's level course in ecological modeling covers models used in environmental management and ecological research.
"It needs to be integrated with mechanistic and dynamic ecological modeling and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics," he added.

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