The presence of Irma in the Atlantic was even predicted with high confidence by the extended-range forecast
system more than a week before the genesis of the cyclone.
Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project released this year's extended-range forecast
of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity, predicting slightly below-average activity in the Atlantic basin, with a forecast of 11 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
This initial extended-range forecast
arrives on the heels of a relatively tame season during which only nine storms developed.
The extended-range forecast
released in April 2008 by CSU researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray anticipates the formation of 15 named storms, eight of which are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, and four are predicted to be "intense" hurricanes.
The CSU team recently released its revised extended-range forecast
for 2003, which calls for twice as many hurricanes as in the previous year.
The CFSv2 Climate Forecast System is used to demonstrate new methods of visualizing large sets of model forecasts, with the application of extended-range forecasts
for environments conducive to severe thunderstorms.
These extended-range forecasts
address the prime goal of the National Monsoon Mission, initiated by the Government of India in 2012: "To Improve Prediction Skill of Monsoon Weather and Climate," and specifically the monsoon prediction capabilities of the CFS.
. Extended-range forecasts
are typically issued for meteorological phenomena that cover areas ranging from thousands of miles to the size of a continent, and involve lead times of one to two weeks.