Tropical Cyclone Mekunu is unlikely to reach the UAE, but the eastern and southern parts of the country might be affected by a moist air mass, according to the medium-range forecast
issued by the National Centre of Meteorology, NCM, reports WAM.
In the ECMWF Meteorological Operations (Met Ops) Room, Hovmoller diagrams and OrlanskiChang diagrams were used for the daily operational monitoring of the medium-range forecast
system, in particular to trace the origin of the bad forecasts--the forecast busts--insofar as they were due to poor initial conditions.
Since reanalyses are produced with a fixed configuration of the IFS, it can be very useful to compare the evolution over time of medium-range forecast
skill with that of reforecasts produced with the reanalysis system.
An immediate implication of this result is that in any individual year, knowledge about the tropical Pacific SST alone is not enough to make a skillful medium-range forecast
for the future state of the stratospheric polar vortex.
Wei, 2004: Ensemble reforecasting: improving medium-range forecast
skill using retrospective forecasts Mon.
To this end, the Department of Meteorology has been providing short- and medium-range forecasts
. Now, with the UNDP-supported Climate Information and Early Warning System project, were improving the availability and reliability of that forecasting, combining global models and available historical (30 years) data from the country.
Such medium-range forecasts
require a high level of expertise and computational power, as Bauer explained: 'It is a challenge to enhance the physical realism of the system to produce better forecasts, because many processes are either not well understood or difficult to represent in a computer model.
Yamaguchi, 2014: Evaluation of medium-range forecasts
for Hurricane Sandy.
Also, preliminary medium-range forecasts
suggest weak chances of rain next Monday (February 25), according to the Met department.
are usually predicted between one week to four weeks in advance.
These medium-range forecasts
focus on anomalous events and are worded to be easily verified.
The medium-range forecasts
for investments and energy market largely depend on geopolitical considerations and internal pressure by public opinion and stakeholders.