When following a subjective Bayesian approach, one uses a definition of personal probability
that could be viewed as an individual's assessment of a fair value for a bet of [H.sub.0] versus its complement.
The questions covered 7 topics: worries about EVD and perceived personal probability
of infection, knowledge about transmission routes of Ebola virus, media use to obtain information about EVD, personal reactions to the EVD outbreak, attitudes toward specific measures to prevent the spread of EVD to Europe, willingness to volunteer to fight EVD in West Africa, and attitudes toward vaccination against EVD.
* 44% if treatment had a 3% chance of doing them good and a 97% chance of doing no good/not being needed (personal probability
Developmental study of personal probability
. Contributions to information integration theory: Vol.
After you've fully named six possible explanations for whatever phenomenon you are seeking to understand, you then apply your personal probability
factor (PPF) to each of your six explanations.
Savage (1954, 57) himself noted, "neither the theory of personal probability
However, when I think reflectively about questions of expected utility, personal probability
and actual action, I ask myself if, and in what manner, my various actions are consistent or not with my beliefs.
To calculate the probability of the risk, Alinean has developed the following formula: Predicted number of breaches per year = personal probability
of security breach occurring X estimated number of incidents per 1,000 users X the multiple of 1,000 users.
To constrain rationality (rather than logicality) we would need to replace the (implausibly stringent) probabilistic constraints (Hacking, "Slightly More Realistic Personal Probability
", Philosophy of Science, 34, 1967, pp.
It is true for any pair of theories T and T[prime] that if T [satisfies] T[prime] then for any rational personal probability
function [P.sub.1](-), it must always be the case that [P.sub.1](T) [less than or equal to] [P.sub.1](T[prime]).