# probability forecast

## probability forecast

[‚präb·ə′bil·əd·ē ‚fȯr‚kast]
(meteorology)
A forecast of the probability of occurrence of one or more of a mutually exclusive set of weather contingencies, as distinguished from a series of categorical statements.
References in periodicals archive ?
Using the satellite, they are giving probability forecast for 10 days and it is very good for three days.
The traditional "single" deterministic forecast is gradually replaced by the probability forecast which represents the uncertainty of the forecast, that is, a transition from deterministic forecast to ensemble forecast.
Section 2 discusses the importance of weaker/stronger recovery probability forecast. Section 3 explains the econometrics of the ordered probit approach.
He declined to provide his own probability forecast.
This is a simple probability forecast that more expensive stocks will perform worse than cheap stocks.
Using the example of Case 1 at a 3% markup and the value for [WM.sub.i] obtained in Section 3.4.2., we may apply equation (21) to obtain a win probability forecast PM = 78%.
The value of a probability forecast, Theory and Decision 63 (2): 78-95.
First, a constant probability forecast, P([E.sub.kt]) = [p.sub.k] for all t, that minimizes the QPS is obtained by setting P([E.sub.kt]) equal to the relative frequency with which the event [E.sub.kt] occurred over the sample period.
The accuracy measure used here, known as the logarithmic scoring rule (LSR), examines how much weight the probability forecast places on the actual outcome.
On the other hand, assigning a probability forecast to each possible path of price pressures (inflation, deflation, or price stability) would help decisionmakers to make a better allocation of available resources, and that would improve decision-making.
For example, generating a reliable probability forecast for a high-impact event such as a dust storm at Balad Air Base, iraq, requires processing a fine-scale ensemble forecast to model the event.
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