random forecast

random forecast

[′ran·dəm ′fȯr‚kast]
(meteorology)
A forecast in which one of a set of meteorological contingencies is selected on the basis of chance; it is often used as a standard of comparison in determining the degree of skill of another forecast method.
References in periodicals archive ?
All seven showed some utility in forecasting the locations of likely earthquakes, with the best forecasts proving to be about ten times better than a random forecast.