subjective probability


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subjective probability

[səb′jek·tiv ‚präb·ə′bil·əd·ē]
(statistics)
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99) For the purposes of the model used here, these variables will include: (S), the sanction faced if convicted; (p), the subjective probability of conviction; (O), the opportunity costs of the time spent engaging in the offense; and (T), the costs associated with the stigma that attaches to criminals.
Furthermore, the dispersion of the elicited distribution is correlated to other sources of uncertainty (such as years to expected claiming age and subjective probability of losing one's job in the next year), in the expected direction for both designs.
If this standard of proof often used in practice refers to subjective probability, it suffers from the difficulties of creating a useful metaphor by which decisionmakers can make sense of the concept--as was discussed of below-50% standards of proof for probable cause.
Finally, in order to explore the extent to which bettors account for the changing PP bias over the period, LR tests, similar to those discussed in "Modeling Bettors' Subjective Probability Judgments" are conducted for each of the years.
77) and who attached a higher subjective probability to living about another 10 years (OR = 5.
s], the subjective probability of the perceived effectiveness of the vaccination, in comparison to the objective effectiveness probability, [pi].
Thanks to the ingenuity of Victor Zarnowitz, one of the world's leading scholars on business cycles, indicators, and forecast evaluation, the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) (5) has been collecting subjective probability forecasts of real GDP/GNP declines during the current and four subsequent quarters since its inception in 1968.
Gambetta (1988) argues, trust is a particular level of the subjective probability with which an agent assesses that another agent will perform a particular action, both before he can monitor such action and in a context in which it affects his own action (p.
Kahneman and Tversky (1973) and Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky (1982), among others, have introduced the idea of subjective probability heuristics--rules that people tend to rely on when assessing the likelihood of alternative events.
13) In relying on objective probabilities agencies assume that the latter closely enough approximate subjective probability estimates, or else that individuals will soon enough discover the truth as they acquire experience or respond to further regulatory efforts to disseminate information about objective risks.
The data contain relatively few actual realignments, and the sample distribution of realignments may not be representative enough to capture the discrete changes in the exchange rate caused by a non-zero subjective probability of realignment (even when no realignment has in fact taken place).

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